Analysis of the Market Pattern of Pre meter Energy Storage in the United States
2023-12-18
Analysis of the Market Pattern of Pre meter Energy Storage in the United States
Currently, there is a clear trend of vertical integration in the energy storage industry, with a typical feature of upstream and downstream entering the integration stage one after another.
The competition in the energy storage industry is intensifying, and there is a trend of vertical integration in multiple links. The energy storage industry chain, from upstream core equipment enterprises such as batteries and PCS to downstream developers, generally shows a trend of vertical integration. The competition and cooperation relationship between the upstream and downstream of the industry chain is more complex and diverse. This article mainly introduces the situation of the upstream and midstream of the energy storage industry chain in the United States.
Upstream of market pattern:
Domestic energy storage industry chain enterprises accelerate US exports
The domestic battery industry has obvious competitive advantages, and high-quality battery enterprises are expected to receive more large orders. The safety and price competitiveness of lithium iron phosphate batteries are fully demonstrated, and domestic enterprises continue to place large orders. Previously, leading overseas integrators represented by Fluence and Tesla mainly collaborated with Japanese and Korean battery companies specializing in ternary batteries. However, in recent years, they have turned to domestic battery companies such as CATL, which mainly focuses on the iron lithium route.
Compared to ternary batteries, domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries continue to highlight their price competitiveness and safety advantages, and mainstream overseas integrators are expected to accelerate their shift towards the lithium iron route. Apart from CATL, battery companies such as Yiwei Lithium Energy, Nandu Power, Haichen Energy Storage, and Penghui Energy are also accelerating their expansion.
Quality is the primary factor for domestic battery exports, and factors such as price, supply, and battery qualifications are also important considerations for overseas cooperation.
Due to the fact that the US energy storage market is mainly driven by economic factors, the quality of energy storage batteries has a more prominent impact on the safe and economical operation of energy storage. From Powin's requirements for battery supplier cooperation, it can be seen that American energy storage customers prioritize quality over cost, supply, as well as company funding and battery qualifications.
Apart from indirectly going overseas through domestic integrators, it is expected that direct overseas expansion will be an important opportunity for other links in the domestic energy storage industry chain. Although following domestic integrators to indirectly export to the United States is an important path for the domestic energy storage industry chain, this path is also relatively more competitive.
Considering that the overall pattern of integrators in the US energy storage market is still dominated by overseas enterprises, domestic energy storage enterprises in areas such as PCS and temperature control are expected to encounter more opportunities by actively exploring overseas integrator customers.
Mid Market Landscape:
Intense competition among integrators, domestic integrators may welcome new opportunities
Integrators are important entry points for domestic enterprises to participate in the US energy storage market, which can be divided into two paths: domestic integrators and overseas integrators.
Domestic enterprises participating in the US energy storage market are concentrated in equipment supply, and integrators are an important entry point into the US energy storage market. It is expected that due to various factors such as policies, domestic enterprises will find it difficult to participate in downstream links such as energy storage project investment and EPC in the United States, and most of them will supply equipment. Integrators are the ultimate link in the assembly and debugging of energy storage equipment, and therefore also the entry point for domestic enterprises to participate in the downstream energy storage market in the United States.
The market structure of national energy storage integrators is relatively concentrated, with different backgrounds of top enterprises. According to IHS data, in 2021, the share of global energy storage integrators ranked by power capacity was 43% for CR3 and 71% for CR10.
The top three companies, Fluence, NextEra Energy, and Tesla, have all entered this track through their renewable energy development business. W ä rtsil ä, NEC, and Nidec ASI tend to focus on grid technology and equipment companies, while Sungrow and SMA Sunbelt excel in power electronics technology. Powin Energy used to be software centric.
Overseas top integrators generally have advantages in customer resources, and some companies fill their technological gaps through mergers and acquisitions. NextEra Energy, AES (Fluence parent company), Tesla, and also leading energy storage developers, have a deep connection with FlexGen and developer Broad Reach Power. Powin Energy and LGES have improved their technological capabilities, especially in power electronics, through mergers and acquisitions. In addition, overseas integrators generally emphasize their own research and development capabilities in energy management systems.
Domestic integrators are known for their technological and cost-effectiveness advantages, and are expected to benefit from the increasing number of new developers entering the US market and the trend of disintermediation by integrators.
Except for Sungrow, domestic integrators such as BYD, Kelu Electronics, Dongfang Risheng (Shuangyili), Trina Solar, and Kehua Data have all conducted business in the United States. Benefiting from the domestic industrial chain and cost competitive advantages, domestic energy storage integrators have a competitive relationship with overseas integrators, and also provide OEM services for some overseas integrators.
With the increasing number of new developers in the US market and the trend of disintermediation among integrators, domestic energy storage integrators are expected to face more opportunities.
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The commercial value of off grid energy storage! By 2050, 2 million buildings in Europe will be off the grid!
2023-12-06
The rising cost of energy procurement and the decreasing cost of renewable technology capital have sparked interest in individual building self-sufficiency.
In this study, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany evaluated the potential of 41 million independent single family buildings for self-sufficient energy supply under current and future (2050) conditions.
Scientists have identified 4000 representative buildings, calculated the energy system with the lowest weather resistance cost, and transferred the optimization results to the entire European building complex. Analysis shows that areas with low seasonality and high electricity procurement costs have great potential for building self-sufficiency!
Under current technological and economic conditions, 53% of the 41 million buildings are technically capable of supplying electricity independently of external infrastructure by using only local rooftop solar radiation. By 2050, this proportion may increase to 75%. Compared to grid dependent systems that rely on electric heating, by 2050, building owners can achieve complete energy self-sufficiency for over 2 million buildings.
The economies of scale and time smoothing effects are making people believe that the cost of widely and highly interconnected energy systems will be the lowest. However, the economies of scale of renewable technologies are not very clear. The complexity of organization and regulation increases with the increase of system size, and energy is usually not transmitted over long distances.
Considering this, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany conducted the aforementioned research. They found that in areas with low seasonality (such as Spain) and high electricity prices (such as Germany), off grid buildings have enormous potential. If building owners are willing to pay a premium of up to 50%, 2 million buildings will abandon the power grid by 2050.
"Our results suggest that even by 2050, leaving the grid may not be the most economical option, but investing in such self-sufficient buildings may make sense if you are willing to pay more for self-sufficiency," said Max Kleinebrahm, Chief Researcher of Energy Economics at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
The study was published in the scientific journal Joule and titled "Two million European single household homes may abandon the power grid by 2050.".
According to calculations from the Mercator Institute for Global Public and Climate Change (MCC) based in Berlin in September, the price of solar panels has significantly decreased in recent years, with solar energy costs decreasing by nearly 90% over the past decade.
Chief researcher Felix Creutzig stated that the cost reduction may mean that by 2050, all global energy consumption may be "fully and economically efficiently covered by solar technology and other renewable energy sources.".
Visualization of static changes in energy demand and supply for typical four person single family homes in Germany
The range shown in the above images is based on simulations of 30 historical weather years (1991-2020), representing 10%/90% quantiles and averages. In Figure (A), the useful energy requirements for space heating and cooling are proposed to distinguish between two typical retrofit states. (B) The device category specific electricity and domestic hot water requirements are displayed in. In (C), the normalized power curves of photovoltaic and small wind turbines, as well as the charging status of the battery and pressurized hydrogen storage, are displayed. Although the normalized power curve is used as input for energy system optimization, the storage level represents the optimization result.
Another study published last month by researchers from the University of Exeter and University College London found that solar energy has reached an irreversible critical point and will become the world's primary energy source within thirty years.
Femke Nijsse from the University of Exeter said, "The latest developments in renewable energy mean that predictions based mainly on fossil fuels are no longer realistic."
"By using three tracking positive feedback models, we anticipate that solar photovoltaic power generation will dominate the global energy structure by the middle of this century."
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The New Trend of Energy Storage Industry Points towards Industrial and Commercial Energy Storage
2023-11-17
During the 2023 Shanghai SENC Energy Storage Exhibition held this week, Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of GCL Group, commented on the current energy storage industry. He also pointed out that overcapacity in the manufacturing industry is not a bad thing, as it brings about price drops and industry progress. But the biggest fear is that new players will cross the border and enter the market, swarming in, bringing about a wave of expansion, causing the industry to fall into a state of disorderly competition and exacerbating risks.
The bidding price for energy storage has decreased by one-third in half a year. Zhu Gongshan said, "The homogenization of products is severe, and the price war is becoming increasingly fierce. This is the current situation in the energy storage industry, which is to compete for performance, share, and quote below cost
Zhu Gongshan believes that the development logic of the industrial background of the wind and solar energy storage industry is basically similar to its cyclical pattern. Enterprises cannot herd together. Overinvestment, overcapacity, and disorderly competition will all bring periodic fluctuations to the industry
Industrial and commercial energy storage has become the "new trend" in the current energy storage industry.
During the 2023 Shanghai SENC Energy Storage Exhibition, a reporter from First Financial News found that liquid cooled and air-cooled energy storage cabinets used for industrial and commercial energy storage scenarios occupy the "C" space of the exhibition booth. Jinlang Technology (300763. SZ), Keshida (002518. SZ), Singularity Energy, Sanjing Co., Ltd., Shouhang New Energy, Daqin Digital Energy, and other enterprises all released new energy storage products for the industrial and commercial industry at this energy storage exhibition.
For example, BYD (002594. SZ), a leading energy storage company, has released the new industrial and commercial energy storage product MC-I. The biggest highlight of this product is its structural innovation. Nengcang Technology, a subsidiary of NASDAQ: NAAS, has released an integrated energy management solution that includes AIPack's industrial and commercial liquid cooling energy storage system, energy management system, and energy storage cloud platform.
This year, the development of energy storage in China's industrial and commercial industry is outstanding. "During the exploration period, the head of an energy storage enterprise told a reporter from First Financial that there are different perspectives in the industry this year. For example, the Zhongguancun Industrial Alliance predicts that it will reach 3 gigawatts this year, and the Gaogong Lithium Battery Research Institute predicts that it will reach 6 gigawatts this year. This year is the first year of industry and commerce. Last year, the entire installed capacity was only 1 GW, and this year, it was only 6 GW when it reached 3 GW, indicating that energy storage in the industry is continuously growing and growing at a high speed.
According to the 2023 White Paper on the Development of Industrial and Commercial Energy Storage in China, it is expected that by 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of global industrial and commercial energy storage can reach 11.5GW, and the total installed capacity of China's industrial and commercial energy storage is about 3.2GW, with a cumulative market size of approximately 6.5 billion to 8 billion yuan.
In the first half of this year, the newly put into operation scale of new energy storage reached 8.63GW, with new energy storage accounting for 80% of the total newly added energy storage. As of June 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has reached 17.33 million kilowatts, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50%. This year, the new energy storage capacity is expected to reach 20GW.
The current energy storage technology route is flourishing and developing rapidly. Although different technology routes have their own focuses, they are all competing in technology around the demands of long lifespan, low cost, and high safety. Zhu Gongshan suggested that each enterprise should identify its own positioning, focus on technology, enhance its brand, and have a hundred flowers blooming. The reshuffle of the energy storage industry is imminent, and only professionals can survive
Whether it's energy storage integration or new materials, the company still focuses on lithium batteries in terms of new energy storage. "Wang Dongrong, Vice President of China Power (02380. HK), also stated in a recent media interview that from the perspective of new energy storage, electrochemical energy storage represented by lithium batteries currently holds an absolute share in the market, and its learning curve and iteration speed are very in line with industry trends. At the same time, the company is closely following other technological routes, such as compressed air energy storage and hybrid energy storage.
However, due to the characteristics of lithium batteries, electrochemical energy storage is not suitable for large-scale energy storage technology, so hydrogen energy may develop at a faster pace in the future to solve the problem of large-scale energy storage. "Wang Dongrong added," Therefore, the State Power Investment Corporation and China Power have always been reserving some hydrogen energy projects, converting wind power and photovoltaic energy into storable energy, including hydrogen energy, methanol A series of green electricity conversion processes, such as hydrogen to ammonia production.
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