The rising cost of energy procurement and the decreasing cost of renewable technology capital have sparked interest in individual building self-sufficiency.
In this study, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany evaluated the potential of 41 million independent single family buildings for self-sufficient energy supply under current and future (2050) conditions.
Scientists have identified 4000 representative buildings, calculated the energy system with the lowest weather resistance cost, and transferred the optimization results to the entire European building complex. Analysis shows that areas with low seasonality and high electricity procurement costs have great potential for building self-sufficiency!
Under current technological and economic conditions, 53% of the 41 million buildings are technically capable of supplying electricity independently of external infrastructure by using only local rooftop solar radiation. By 2050, this proportion may increase to 75%. Compared to grid dependent systems that rely on electric heating, by 2050, building owners can achieve complete energy self-sufficiency for over 2 million buildings.
The economies of scale and time smoothing effects are making people believe that the cost of widely and highly interconnected energy systems will be the lowest. However, the economies of scale of renewable technologies are not very clear. The complexity of organization and regulation increases with the increase of system size, and energy is usually not transmitted over long distances.
Considering this, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany conducted the aforementioned research. They found that in areas with low seasonality (such as Spain) and high electricity prices (such as Germany), off grid buildings have enormous potential. If building owners are willing to pay a premium of up to 50%, 2 million buildings will abandon the power grid by 2050.
"Our results suggest that even by 2050, leaving the grid may not be the most economical option, but investing in such self-sufficient buildings may make sense if you are willing to pay more for self-sufficiency," said Max Kleinebrahm, Chief Researcher of Energy Economics at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
The study was published in the scientific journal Joule and titled "Two million European single household homes may abandon the power grid by 2050.".
According to calculations from the Mercator Institute for Global Public and Climate Change (MCC) based in Berlin in September, the price of solar panels has significantly decreased in recent years, with solar energy costs decreasing by nearly 90% over the past decade.
Chief researcher Felix Creutzig stated that the cost reduction may mean that by 2050, all global energy consumption may be "fully and economically efficiently covered by solar technology and other renewable energy sources.".
Visualization of static changes in energy demand and supply for typical four person single family homes in Germany
The range shown in the above images is based on simulations of 30 historical weather years (1991-2020), representing 10%/90% quantiles and averages. In Figure (A), the useful energy requirements for space heating and cooling are proposed to distinguish between two typical retrofit states. (B) The device category specific electricity and domestic hot water requirements are displayed in. In (C), the normalized power curves of photovoltaic and small wind turbines, as well as the charging status of the battery and pressurized hydrogen storage, are displayed. Although the normalized power curve is used as input for energy system optimization, the storage level represents the optimization result.
Another study published last month by researchers from the University of Exeter and University College London found that solar energy has reached an irreversible critical point and will become the world's primary energy source within thirty years.
Femke Nijsse from the University of Exeter said, "The latest developments in renewable energy mean that predictions based mainly on fossil fuels are no longer realistic."
"By using three tracking positive feedback models, we anticipate that solar photovoltaic power generation will dominate the global energy structure by the middle of this century."
The rising cost of energy procurement and the decreasing cost of renewable technology capital have sparked interest in individual building self-sufficiency.
In this study, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany evaluated the potential of 41 million independent single family buildings for self-sufficient energy supply under current and future (2050) conditions.
Scientists have identified 4000 representative buildings, calculated the energy system with the lowest weather resistance cost, and transferred the optimization results to the entire European building complex. Analysis shows that areas with low seasonality and high electricity procurement costs have great potential for building self-sufficiency!
Under current technological and economic conditions, 53% of the 41 million buildings are technically capable of supplying electricity independently of external infrastructure by using only local rooftop solar radiation. By 2050, this proportion may increase to 75%. Compared to grid dependent systems that rely on electric heating, by 2050, building owners can achieve complete energy self-sufficiency for over 2 million buildings.
The economies of scale and time smoothing effects are making people believe that the cost of widely and highly interconnected energy systems will be the lowest. However, the economies of scale of renewable technologies are not very clear. The complexity of organization and regulation increases with the increase of system size, and energy is usually not transmitted over long distances.
Considering this, researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany conducted the aforementioned research. They found that in areas with low seasonality (such as Spain) and high electricity prices (such as Germany), off grid buildings have enormous potential. If building owners are willing to pay a premium of up to 50%, 2 million buildings will abandon the power grid by 2050.
"Our results suggest that even by 2050, leaving the grid may not be the most economical option, but investing in such self-sufficient buildings may make sense if you are willing to pay more for self-sufficiency," said Max Kleinebrahm, Chief Researcher of Energy Economics at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.
The study was published in the scientific journal Joule and titled "Two million European single household homes may abandon the power grid by 2050.".
According to calculations from the Mercator Institute for Global Public and Climate Change (MCC) based in Berlin in September, the price of solar panels has significantly decreased in recent years, with solar energy costs decreasing by nearly 90% over the past decade.
Chief researcher Felix Creutzig stated that the cost reduction may mean that by 2050, all global energy consumption may be "fully and economically efficiently covered by solar technology and other renewable energy sources.".
Visualization of static changes in energy demand and supply for typical four person single family homes in Germany
The range shown in the above images is based on simulations of 30 historical weather years (1991-2020), representing 10%/90% quantiles and averages. In Figure (A), the useful energy requirements for space heating and cooling are proposed to distinguish between two typical retrofit states. (B) The device category specific electricity and domestic hot water requirements are displayed in. In (C), the normalized power curves of photovoltaic and small wind turbines, as well as the charging status of the battery and pressurized hydrogen storage, are displayed. Although the normalized power curve is used as input for energy system optimization, the storage level represents the optimization result.
Another study published last month by researchers from the University of Exeter and University College London found that solar energy has reached an irreversible critical point and will become the world's primary energy source within thirty years.
Femke Nijsse from the University of Exeter said, "The latest developments in renewable energy mean that predictions based mainly on fossil fuels are no longer realistic."
"By using three tracking positive feedback models, we anticipate that solar photovoltaic power generation will dominate the global energy structure by the middle of this century."
